Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gedion Timothewos, delivered an extensive address at the Foreign Policy Forum co-organized by Horn Review and Addis Ababa University on Thursday (November 13). The event brought together representatives of the international community, civil society organizations, academia, and the media for an in-depth conversation on Ethiopia’s foreign policy, regional dynamics in the Horn of Africa, and the state of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Opening his remarks, Minister Gedion outlined Ethiopia’s overarching foreign policy priorities, reaffirming the country’s commitment to peace, regional stability, and cooperative development. He emphasized Ethiopia’s long-standing vision for regional economic integration, an approach rooted in shared development potential, intertwined histories, and the common destiny of the peoples of the Horn. He stressed that dialogue, mutual respect, and a clear understanding of the region’s complex historical context are essential to addressing shared challenges and building sustainable peace.
Historical Roots of the Ethio-Eritrean Question
In reviewing contemporary tensions, Minister Gedion traced the conflict’s roots across seven decades. Since the mid-20th century, Ethiopia and Eritrea have experienced federation, unification, secession, and repeated conflict.
He recalled that from the early 1960s until 1991, a thirty-year civil war shaped regional dynamics. Although Eritrea’s independence in 1993 brought a short period of calm, conflict erupted again in 1998. The Eritrea-Ethiopia Claims Commission later determined that Eritrea initiated the war, concluding that “Eritrean armed forces…attacked the town of Badme” and thereby violated Article 2(4) of the UN Charter.
The 2000 Algiers Agreement ended active hostilities but did not resolve the underlying conflict. For eighteen years, the two countries remained locked in a “no-peace, no-war” cycle.
The Minister noted Ethiopia’s significant steps in 2018 to normalize relations, rehabilitate Eritrea’s international standing, and support the lifting of international sanctions. While the rapprochement was short-lived, it revealed the “overwhelming will and aspirations of the peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea to live in peace and harmony.”
He added that this desire was not matched by the Government of Eritrea, which he said continues to reject normal neighborly relations. He cautioned that current tensions should not be interpreted as a new or exceptional development, as the historical record shows conflict has been the dominant feature of relations for decades.
Misinterpretations and the Need for Proper Understanding
The Minister criticized external observers who attribute current tensions to Ethiopia’s questions on access to the sea. He argued that such views overlook decades of Eritrean hostility even at moments when Ethiopia categorically renounced maritime claims. He referenced past governments that opposed any reconsideration of Ethiopia’s sea access but still faced destabilization efforts from Eritrea.
He cautioned against superficial analysis that identified a complex interplay of economic, historical, and cultural factors behind the 1998–2000 conflict. The Minister warned that today’s focus on the port of Assab risks repeating earlier mistakes of misdiagnosis.
Five Structural Drivers of Chronic Tension
Minister Gedion outlined five key underlying causes that, in his view, perpetuate conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea:
1. A Desire for Sovereignty Without Responsibility
He described a long-standing pattern in which the Eritrean leadership seeks the privileges of an independent state while maintaining deep interference in Ethiopia’s domestic affairs, including political commentary and exploitative economic practices.
2. Eritrea’s Role as a Regional Proxy
The Minister argued that Eritrea has repeatedly aligned itself with external actors who wish to weaken Ethiopia, noting this pattern dates back to the colonial era and continues in various forms today.
3. The “Isayas Doctrine”
He described an unwritten doctrine whereby Eritrea’s security is seen as dependent on Ethiopia’s instability. This, he said, reflects deep anxieties about Eritrea’s long-term statehood and encourages hostile policies toward Ethiopia.
4. The Anomalous Nature of the Eritrean State
Minister Gedion criticized Eritrea’s governance model, noting that its highly militarized state structure prioritizes coercive capacity over citizen welfare. He described a system in which society is subordinated to the state, leading to indefinite military service, widespread migration, and the absence of normal economic policy considerations.
He added that this “Nakfa syndrome,” an inability to move beyond guerrilla-era governance, prevents Eritrea from engaging constructively with neighbors.
5. Ethiopian Public Perceptions of 1993
He noted that a considerable portion of politically conscious Ethiopians believe the transitional government’s handling of Eritrea’s secession compromised Ethiopia’s long-term interests. While such sentiments have decreased over time, Ethiopians who came of age in the last thirty years now accept Eritrean statehood as a given, yet many still view Ethiopia’s exclusion from the Red Sea as unjust. He stressed that Ethiopia’s long-term economic sustainability requires secure and durable access to the sea, framing it as an existential development question rather than a territorial claim.
Current Realities and Ethiopia’s Restraint
Minister Gedion highlighted ongoing provocations, including Eritrean military presence inside Ethiopian territory and support to armed groups opposed to the Government of Ethiopia. These actions, he argued, constitute grounds for Ethiopia to exercise its right to self-defense.
However, he stated that Ethiopia has chosen restraint, a policy shaped by its focus on economic recovery and long-term growth. He stressed that such restraint reflects Ethiopia’s conscious choice to pursue peace but cautioned that it “should not and cannot be taken as indefinite or unconditional.”
Ethiopia’s Vision for the Horn of Africa
Ethiopia’s vision for the Horn of Africa centers on a future in which the region functions as a shared geo-economic and cultural space. In his remarks, the Minister highlighted the importance of regional economic integration, stronger infrastructure connectivity, expanded trade and investment, and the gradual development of a common market. He underscored that these pillars form the basis of a more stable, prosperous, and interlinked Horn of Africa.
He emphasized that realizing this vision requires two key principles. The first is strategic autonomy, meaning that countries in the Horn must craft policies rooted in their national interests rather than the agendas of external powers. The second is that the project of economic integration must be built on trust and mutual respect. The sovereignty and territorial integrity of each state should be upheld, as meaningful integration cannot advance in an environment where hegemonic ambitions, whether external or internal, continue to shape relations.
The Minister noted that Ethiopia seeks to champion an inclusive, negotiated, and trust-based approach to regional cooperation, one that ensures all countries in the Horn of Africa benefit from shared progress.
The Future of Ethio-Eritrean Relations
Minister Gedion concluded by underscoring the deep historical, cultural, and human ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea, stating that the two countries share “virtually one people.” This does not diminish Eritrea’s sovereignty, he said, but affirms a foundation for coexistence and cooperation.
He argued that, ideally, Ethiopia and Eritrea should form the nucleus of a future Horn of Africa economic community, an objective achievable only through stability, mutual respect, and responsible leadership.
On the Matter of Access to the Sea
The Minister stressed the critical importance of maritime access for Ethiopia’s economic future. He noted that a vibrant economy supporting over 130 million people cannot thrive without reliable access to the sea.
“A vibrant economy that can provide livelihoods for a population of more than 130 million people requires durable and secure access to the sea,” he said. “Without such access, Ethiopia cannot achieve the economic progress necessary for sustained development. Ethiopia must not be locked in poverty.”
He added that sustainable growth and economic dynamism are essential to addressing Ethiopia’s development challenges. “Only by creating new and equitable opportunities through sustained growth and economic dynamism can Ethiopia transcend the faultlines of poverty and conflict. Therefore, the quest for durable and secure access to the sea is an existential matter for our country,” he concluded.
The Role of the International Community
Turning to the international community, the Minister highlighted its potential role in supporting peace and regional integration in the Horn of Africa. He urged global actors to engage constructively and help realize a long-term vision for stability.
“Finally, let me address the role the international community could play,” he stated. “The world cannot afford another 30 years of conflict, poverty, displacement, and chaos in the Horn of Africa. The international community, particularly actors whose interests in our region are not malevolent, can play a critical role by supporting this vision.”
He called on the international community to influence Eritrea toward constructive engagement. “I urge the international community to disabuse the Eritrean government of its misguided policies towards Ethiopia and the region, and encourage Eritrea to participate in this vision of integration by taking small, tangible steps toward a brighter future. Rigid, uncompromising, outdated, and Manichean conceptions of sovereignty must give way to a more collaborative and integrated economic future that benefits all of us,” he said.
The Minister concluded by emphasizing the shared responsibility of both governments and the necessity of dialogue. “We should not be captives of our history, but masters of our future destiny. We cannot undo the past, nor the pain and suffering endured by generations because conflict was often chosen over dialogue. But we can change what happens today and tomorrow. This responsibility lies primarily with the governments of both states. The Government of Ethiopia is ready for dialogue and a different future. We call upon the international community to exert pressure and encourage the Eritrean government to desist from provocations and violations against Ethiopia, and to engage in good-faith dialogue,” he said.
A panel discussion followed his remarks, during which participants raised questions on peace, security, and regional integration in the Horn of Africa. Minister Gedion provided detailed responses, further clarifying Ethiopia’s positions on key regional issues. (Click to read the full speech https://mfaethiopia.blog/2025/11/14/speech-by-foreign-minister-gedion-timothewos-at-the-foreign-policy-forum-on-developments-in-the-horn-of-africa/)